Lot of people ask 3 Questions regarding 3G/4G potential in numbers/USD, deployment and monetization in India. The questions and answers are provided here under.
A) ” What is the market potential (in USD) for 3G/4G in India?”
The potential can be calculated through an iterative process such as given here under:
1. Attempt early calculation for the top 200 cities of India (plus/minus a few due to roll out constraints)
2. Estimate total current users of Mobile (feature+ smart) in these 200 cities eg 400 million
3. Define Market Potential for 3G/4G mobile devices eg 75% of user base- 300 million
( Device could be mobile, phablet, table, < 12 inch) or 135 Million
4. Take average value per device eg 300 USD
5. Calculate Market Demand for 1st 3 years for 3G/4G devices eg 45% of users. 1 per individual basis or 135 Million
6. Calculate rate of market entry per year for 1st 3 years eg 15%
7. Prioritize Segment eg Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, Laggards at 5, 15, 25, 35, 20 % respectively. Focus on Innovators, Early Adopters & Early Majority first, amongst them on those who currently have Smartphone and are willing to replace/substitute.
8. Put an approximate value to the 1st 3 year potential in USD eg 45% of 300 million=135 million* 300 USD (per device average cost in 1st 3 years)
B) Why others, beyond 45%, will remain unserved?
They remain unserved in 1st 3 years due to 5 reasons : 3G/4G not affordable, inadequate benefits, Unable to use, Not Available, Not fully aware.
C) What are the drivers of rate of Market Entry for 3G/4G?
a) Upfront payment the customer makes,
b) Monthly payments the customer makes,
a) & b) constitute main portions of cost of ownership,
c) 3G/4G Network Coverage & Quality,
d) Suit of 3G/4G Applications/Services,
These 7 Drivers put together can impact/create traction.
Stop wishing. Start doing.
The Mobile Industry, penetration and business have come thus far by taking actions. Why delay them in view of superior technology deployment?